Probabilistic Modelling of Parameter Variability for Analysing Grid-Connected LV Feeders with DG

There is mounting pressure on utilities worldwide to incorporate renewable energy sources in their distribution of electricity. The inclusion of distributed generation (DG) on feeders connected to the grid presents significant problems when feeder performance must be assessed. Two issues arising from the inclusion of DG are voltage regulation and reverse power feed. There is variability in the generation of power from solar panels or from wind turbines due to daily solar cycles and seasonal (weather related) changes. And then there is the daily and seasonal variability due to the stochastic behaviour of domestic loads.

This paper presents an approach for modelling both loads and DG as probability Beta probability density functions (PDFs).