Penguin model projections: 20 years, autocorrelation, and immigration

Projection results requested for Robben Island penguins are presented under three variations of the base case projection assumptions. These are: extending the projections to cover a 20-year period; including auto-correlation in the residuals about the penguin mortality-sardine biomass relationship; and including immigration in the first 11 years of the projections (which start from 2012) at the same level as estimated to have taken place between 1989 and 1999.