A check of operating model predictions from the viewpoint of the management procedure implementation in 2013

In this document, recent aerial survey (AS) index and  longline CPUE index values are compared to the projection results that were obtained from operating models (OMs) for the implementation of management procedure (MP) in the context of the calculation of the next TAC for 2015-2017. The updated AS index value for 2012 is still outside the 95% probability interval predicted using base case OM, but for 2013 this index is close to the median value predicted by that OM. The most recent two years’ longline CPUE values are also within that OM’s predicted 95% probability envelope. Hence these results do not provide any information to support the existence of exceptional circumstances for the SBT stock at this time. Nevertheless, further consideration of the low AS index value in 2012 is desirable to better understand the characteristics of this index and consequent MP performance, and to explain this to the Extended Commission (EC).