A further update of the reference case assessment and related projections for the South African hake resource

An initial further update of the Reference Case hake assessment is presented. This incorporates all data updates now available, and also proposes a more parsimonious model for survey selectivities. The recent spawning biomass for M. paradoxus is estimated to be higher in relative terms compared to that estimated in an earlier analysis presented in May, but less in absolute terms and relative to BMSY. Changes for M. capensis are less marked. Projections under the current OMP are generally more positive than reported in May, with forecasts of continued increases in CPUE and in spawning biomass for both species, and a reversal in a downward trend for TACs by 2020 rather than by 2022.