FISHERIES_2021_JUL_SWG_PEL_52 - Sardine predictions of November recruitment estimates_fin.pdf (491.15 kB)

A regression-based estimate of the November 2020 sardine recruitment strength based on the June 2021 recruitment survey result

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The regression method developed in 2020 to predict the November 2019 sardine recruitment strength from the estimate from the 2020 recruitment survey is shown to have performed very well (given that the assessment-based estimate of that recruitment is now available). Applying the same method to the result from the 2021 recruitment survey predicts a low November 2020 sardine recruitment compared to 2019, with a 90% probability of being between 8-40% of the November 2019 level.

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Department of Mathematics and Applied Mathematics, University of Cape Town