A risk analysis of the impact of harvesting sardine on the west coast of South Africa

In this document we consider the risk to the sardine resource for the 2016 season, in terms of the west coast harvest rate. More specifically, we consider the expected harvest rate under alternative west coast catch scenarios in a risk analysis context, taking into consideration a range of alternative hypotheses concerning the proportion of south coast biomass at the time of the November hydro-acoustic survey that may contribute to west coast recruitment. The purpose of this risk analysis is to demonstrate to decision makers the level of extra risk involved as the catch allowed on the west coast is increased.