An initial investigation of an approach to develop a survey-based rule to judge whether abundance has dropped below an appropriate “limit reference point” for Atlantic menhaden.

Two aspects of the specification of an abundance-based Limit Reference Point (LRP) for the Atlantic menhaden fishery are investigated: the choice of an appropriate value for such a LRP, and the associated operationalisation of such a choice by means of a simple decision rule, based on the JAI survey index, to decide whether or not the resource has dropped below that LRP. Possible choices for such an LRP in terms of the population fecundity (FEC) index are motivated on the basis of the current assessment of the recent dynamics of the resource. Projection simulation methodology is developed to test an associated class of decision rules across a range of scenarios spanning various assumptions for future catches and recruitment levels. A specific rule: that if the average value of the most recent two available JAI annual survey results is below 13, then resource abundance be considered to have fallen below the LRP, is argued to show robust performance over both the range of scenarios for future catches and recruitments, and the range put forward for a FEC-based LRP.

Some suggestions for possible extensions of this initial investigation are made.