FISHERIES_2020_JUL_SWG-PEL_60.pdf (669.92 kB)

Continuous approach applied to sardine recruitment survey estimate to advise on juvenile sardine TAB estimates for 2020 and the corresponding recruitment strength

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The Bayesian-like update method suggested in FISHERIES/2020/JUN/SWG-PEL/57 is applied to the 2020 recruitment survey estimate for sardine to provide a point estimate and a posterior distribution for this (west component) recruitment strength as correspond to November of the preceding year. These are then compared to historical estimates from the most recent stock assessment. This posterior is also used to inform on possible sardine TAB revisions, though there are important caveats associated with those results.

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Department of Mathematics and Applied Mathematics, University of Cape Town