Evaluating the accuracy of hake abundance index predictions using different smoothing techniques

Alternative projection approaches based on linear and quadratic smoothing are applied retrospectively to abundance indices for hake to ascertain whether they can provide more accurate predictions of resource status one and two years ahead, in line with ideal needs for the empirical OMP used to set hake TACs. The results suggest that there is probably little if anything to be gained from attempting more complex formulations than three-year averages of abundance indices for input to a target-based empirical OMP for SA hake.