FISHERIES.2021.AUG.SWG.WCRL19 (final poaching trends).pdf (1.11 MB)

Final poaching trends using the new approach to combine estimates of illegally exported and locally sold west coast rock lobster

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A new approach which combines TRAFFIC and Compliance poaching indices to provide an overall trend for poaching in absolute terms is proposed. This incorporates penalties on options that imply negative values for local sales of poached lobster, and large changes in the amount poached from year to year. The approach is applied to these indices separated by North and South areas. Four options for overall poaching trends are put forward, with the intent that they bound the range considered plausible.

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Department of Mathematics and Applied Mathematics, University of Cape Town