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Further robustness tests for the development of a Management Procedure for Gulf Menhaden

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posted on 20.09.2021, 09:44 by Doug ButterworthDoug Butterworth, Rebecca A Rademeyer
This document explores further robustness tests for the proposed Gulf menhaden Management Procedure (MP) which were suggested during the stakeholder meeting held over 17-19 July in New Orleans. Results for a future lowered carrying capacity or larger catches, or for some tests involving combinations of tests conducted previously, reflect either little difference in performance or changes broadly as to be expected. The exception is stochastic episodic events, which have a greater negative impact on conservation performance than equivalent tests with steady increases in natural mortality because reduced recruitment plays a larger role. However, rather than attempt to refine the MP to show more robust performance under such scenarios, the suggestion is made to instead react to them on a case-by-case basis under Exceptional Circumstances provisions.

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Department of Mathematics and Applied Mathematics, University of Cape Town