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Impact of possible catch roll-overs at Gough island

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Projections of the lobster abundance at Gough island to 2030 with and without roll-overs (or roll-unders) in TACs since 2019 of the extent already agreed or under discussion, show that such a redistribution of catch over time makes virtually no difference to future abundance. This indicates that such roll-overs will have no negative impact on the resource. This is in line with other experience internationally which shows that such roll-overs are not problematic for relatively long-lived resources if the cumulative catch over a number of years remains the same.

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Department of Mathematics and Applied Mathematics, University of Cape Town