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Initial Tristan island exceptional circumstances rule development

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The addition of Exceptional Circumstances (EC) provisions to the current OMP for Tristan island is investigated. Four EC options are considered, each allowing interannual TAC decreases in excess of 5% if the recent average CPUE drops below a specified level. These are tested against three bad scenarios for the resource, involving either a substantial mortality event or a large run of poor recruitments. Under the tests, all four EC options achieve better CPUE and lower 5%-ile for spawning biomass by 2032 than does the existing OMP without these EC provisions. All of the EC scenarios considered therefore seem to provide adequate safeguards for the resource. Accordingly, the least severe of the four in expected TAC reduction terms, EC2, is suggested for incorporation into the OMP.

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Department of Mathematics and Applied Mathematics, University of Cape Town