Initial simulation projection results assuming a no future catch scenario

This document shows results from some initial simulations according to the framework of de Moor (2016a), under the assumption of no future catch (from 2017 to 2036). Samples from the posterior distributions of three assessment models (de Moor 2016c; de Moor and Butterworth 2016a,b) are used for these initial simulations. The results presented herein are PRELIMINARY as convergence of the posterior distributions has not yet been quantitatively tested. In addition, due to time constraints, the last 1000 samples from the MCMC chains after thinning were used instead of a random sample from the whole portion of the chain after burn-in.