Motivation for and fundamentals of present MICE approaches to investigate possible causes of the decline in penguin abundance

An explanation is given of the need for more complex modelling of penguin interactions with the wider ecosystem, given that fishing in the neighbourhood of penguin breeding colonies has been shown to be likely to have only a small impact on the concerning decrease in penguin abundance over time. This explanation is extended to why MICE approaches are suggested to be preferred for initial attempts to inform on what the other major causes of this decline might be. First, the fundamental penguin dynamics model that underpins current MICE approaches is explained. Extension of this simple model to MICE involves introducing relationships between either or both of penguin reproduction and survival parameters to other factors. The bases for two MICE approaches already implemented initially is summarised: first, how reduced forage fish availability might impact penguin survival; and secondly, how reduction of guano through harvesting might have adversely impacted the availability of optimum penguin breeding habitat and hence reproductive success.