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OMP formula output for the 2024 hake TAC, and the inclusion of the 2022 commercial and 2023 survey data in the OMP projection plots

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posted on 2024-01-30, 11:52 authored by Andrea Ross-GillespieAndrea Ross-Gillespie, Doug ButterworthDoug Butterworth

Application of the OMP indicates a 5% increase in the hake TAC for 2024 to 145 698t. However, a concern arises since of the eight most recent abundance indices, two are below the 90% predicted PI intervals and a third only marginally above this. It is suggested that these occurrences are not sufficient to warrant a declaration of Exceptional Circumstances and a possible reduction in the TAC recommendation, but that this situation be kept under review during the coming year as more data become available.

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Department of Mathematics and Applied Mathematics, University of Cape Town