ON THE ROBUSTNESS OF THE SA HAKE OMP2018 TO AN INCREASED NAMIBIAN CATCH OF M. PARADOXUS

<p>The robustness of the SA hake OMP2018 to the possibility that the <i>M. paradoxus</i> resource is demographically shared with Namibia is tested by simulation. Various levels of an increased Namibian catch of <i>M. paradoxus</i> in the future are considered. For such additional catches of up to 40000t annually, the feedback control nature of the OMP ensures that <i>M. paradoxus</i> biomass is maintained above <i>B_MSY</i> in median terms, but biomass can drop below that level fairly quickly for higher levels of such an additional catch. However, the simulations also show that in such circumstances, there is a high probability than the Exceptional Circumstances provisions of OMP2018 would be triggered, resulting in a further TAC reduction to avert undue depletion of the <i>M. paradoxus</i> resource. These results offer strong support to the supposition that the SA hake OMP2018 is sufficiently robust to secure avoidance of the adverse consequences (in resource conservation terms) which could result given a <i>M. paradoxus</i> stock which may be demographically shared with Namibia.</p>