FISHERIES_2020_MAR_SWG-DEM_02.pdf (579.73 kB)

ON THE ROBUSTNESS OF THE SA HAKE OMP2018 TO AN INCREASED NAMIBIAN CATCH OF M. PARADOXUS

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The robustness of the SA hake OMP2018 to the possibility that the M. paradoxus resource is demographically shared with Namibia is tested by simulation. Various levels of an increased Namibian catch of M. paradoxus in the future are considered. For such additional catches of up to 40000t annually, the feedback control nature of the OMP ensures that M. paradoxus biomass is maintained above BMSY in median terms, but biomass can drop below that level fairly quickly for higher levels of such an additional catch. However, the simulations also show that in such circumstances, there is a high probability than the Exceptional Circumstances provisions of OMP2018 would be triggered, resulting in a further TAC reduction to avert undue depletion of the M. paradoxus resource. These results offer strong support to the supposition that the SA hake OMP2018 is sufficiently robust to secure avoidance of the adverse consequences (in resource conservation terms) which could result given a M. paradoxus stock which may be demographically shared with Namibia.

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Department of Mathematics and Applied Mathematics, University of Cape Town