Recruitment variability in simulation projections

This short document has been produced for the purpose of assisting SWG-PEL members and observers to understand the potential influence of the stock-recruitment curve on future projections of the resource. The examples shown in this document have been produced assuming a single sardine stock operating model and the current Candidate Management Procedure for OMP-14 (de Moor 2014, but with a constant maximum directed sardine TAC of 110% of the original HCR value for survey estimates of November biomass between 300 and 600 000t; b = 0.085 and a = 0.911).