Sardine projections based on constant catch scenarios

Short‐ and long‐term projections of the sardine resource are considered under alternative constant catch scenarios. Recruitment to the west component is estimated to be the primary driver of the population as a whole, and thus management considerations focus on the west component. The west component effective spawner biomass is estimated to be of a similar size to that estimated a year ago, but increases to this biomass are projected to be substantially less optimistic than those projected a year ago, while it is possible that the west component total biomass may decrease between November 2019 to November 2020, even under a no catch scenario.