Selection of acceptable levels of risk for South African small pelagics: the probability of dropping below pre-defined risk thresholds

This document considers alternative methods to define acceptable risk levels – or acceptable probabilities of dropping below limit-like reference or “risk” thresholds - for use in tuning Candidate Management Procedures for the South African sardine and anchovy resources. The document focuses on the sardine resource only and is written to provide background information to the key question to the panel “How do we best select the acceptable probability of dropping below a risk threshold?”