Simple sardine projections for November 2024 and estimated costs of not conducting a 2024 biomass survey

Funding constraints currently preclude an end of the year hydro acoustic biomass survey. A simple population dynamics model is used to predict November 2024 survey estimates of sardine biomass for the areas to the west and east of Cape Agulhas. These estimates are reduced by 15 and 30% to account for uncertainty, and the resultant biomass estimates are compared to the average biomass estimates over recent years. The difference between the estimated biomasses and the biomasses reduced by 15% is used to estimate the financial loss to the fishing industry of not conducting the November 2024 biomass survey to range from R260 million to R360 million. This increases to between R500 million and R700 million if a more conservative (-30%) approach to setting the 2025 TAC is taken.