Simulation testing of penguin closure effect response estimators - where next?

This document sets out the issues arising in taking existing computations forward (those reported in MARAM/IWS/DEC15/PengD/P2 on the basis of the framework set out in MARAM/IWS/DEC15/PengD/P1) to address such bias estimation, particularly with a view to obtaining the Panel’s advice on choices amongst some of the possible courses of action that could be pursued. These choices relate, inter alia, to methods of estimation, methods for generating data for simulation-based evaluation of bias, and interpretation of the results particularly in circumstances where conclusions have to take account of the large number of plausible scenarios which may introduce bias into the estimation. It is intended to adopt such choices for the methodology to be used to take this work to completion in the new year.