Southwest Nova Scotia/Bay of Fundy Herring: Alternative Candidate Management Procedures: Interim results focused on informing immediate suggestions for the 2023 TAC (revised)

The performances of a number of Candidate Management Procedures (CMPs) for the Southwest Nova Scotia/Bay of Fundy Herring fishery are investigated, with a focus on contributing towards the information to be considered when recommending a TAC for 2023 for this fishery. Calculations follow recent approaches, being based on the Operating Model for the fishery which manifests the lowest productivity, and meet the current conservation objective criterion. The CMPs considered contrast the trade-offs between avoiding an immediate TAC decrease (if any) that is particularly large, and ensuring both resource and TAC increases in the longer term, as well as future TAC variability that is not too large in the interests of reasonable stability in the industry. Of these CMPs, that which would see the TAC for 2023 decreased by 5% from that in 2022 is considered to provide the best balance between these conflicting objectives. Reasons are given why the calculation approach used is considered unduly conservative, a matter that merits further consideration in the necessary process of developing the herring MSE further before finally adopting a Management Procedure for this fishery.