Technical Analysis to support the update of South Africa’s First NDC’s mitigation target ranges (UCT 2021)

Marquard, Andrew; Hartley, Faaiqa; Merven, Bruno; Burton, Jesse; Hughes, Alison; Ireland, Gregory; schers, jules; Dane, Anthony; Cohen, Brett; Winkler, Harald; McGregor, Julia; Stevens, Luanne; Masenda, Joseph; Charitar, Deepti; Mc Call, Bryce; Blottnitz, Harro Von; Ahjum, Fadiel

doi:10.25375/uct.16691950.v2

Technical Analysis to support the update of South Africa’s First NDC’s mitigation target ranges (UCT 2021)

Version 2 2021-12-03, 07:04

Version 1 2021-10-01, 05:37

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posted on 2021-12-03, 07:04 authored by Andrew MarquardAndrew Marquard, Faaiqa HartleyFaaiqa Hartley, Bruno MervenBruno Merven, Jesse Burton, Alison Hughes, Gregory Ireland, jules schers, Anthony Dane, Brett Cohen, Harald WinklerHarald Winkler, Julia McGregor, Luanne Stevens, Joseph Masenda, Deepti Charitar, Bryce Mc CallBryce Mc Call, Harro Von Blottnitz, Fadiel Ahjum

This technical analysis was undertaken to support the Department of Fisheries, Forestry and Environment in updating South Africa’s 2015/16 NDC mitigation target ranges, as required of South Africa by the Paris Agreement. It forms a companion piece of analysis to a report on South Africa’s legal obligations under the Paris Agreement regarding NDCs, and on South Africa’s “fair share” of the global mitigation challenge.

The analysis aims to establish where South Africa’s GHG emissions will be in 2025 and 2030, given the twin uncertainties of economic growth and policy implementation, based on current policy plans.

The analysis uses an economy-wide energy/environment/economy modelling framework consisting of a technology-rich energy model (the South African TIMES model, built by the ESRG on the TIMES modelling platform), and a Computable General Equilibrium model (the energy-extended version of the SA general Equilibrium Model).