The simulated short term impact of using OMP-14 to set the initial directed sardine TAC

OMP-14 was tuned, assuming a single homogeneously distributed sardine stock, such that the probability of the total sardine biomass falling below the average biomass from 1991 to 1994 at least once during the 20 year projection period was less than 0.21. de Moor (2017a) showed that continuing to use OMP-14 for the next 20 years would result in a very high (close to 1) probability of being below this threshold, and the continued use of OMP-14 for recommending directed sardine TACs for 2018 may result in an unacceptably high risk to the sardine resource. This document considers only the simulated short-term (one year) impact of using OMP-14 to recommend the directed sardine TAC for 2018.