FISHERIES_2021_JUN_SWG-DEM_07.pdf (1.89 MB)
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Update to the hake Reference Case model incorporating the 2019 commercial and 2020 survey data

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The Reference Case Ricker model is updated with 2019 commercial and 2020 survey data. The updated data points lie within the bounds predicted by OMP2018 projections, except for the proportion of M. capensis in the South Coast offshore trawl fishery catch, which continues to lie outside the 95% probability envelope predicted by OMP2018, as it did for the 2019 RC. The updated assessment results are compatible with the previous (2019) Reference Case results and suggest a continued steady increase in spawning biomass since for M. capensis but a small decrease for M. paradoxus.



Department of Mathematics and Applied Mathematics, University of Cape Town