FISHERIES.2021.AUG.SWG.WCRL20 (updated 2021 assessments and projections).pdf (1.97 MB)

Updated 2021 assessments and initial projections of the west coast rock lobster resource

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The 2020 assessments and deterministic projections for the five super-areas for the west coast rock lobster resource are updated to 2021, using basically the same approach as in 2019 and 2020. The update takes account of a further year’s catch, resource monitoring and somatic growth data, and incorporates revisions made in 2021 of estimates of past poaching levels and of models for somatic growth. Stochastic projections are calculated on an identical basis to that used in 2019. Projection results are appreciably worse than in 2019: even under zero future legal catches (i.e. closure of the legal fishery), the resource cannot regain its 2006 level by 2025. The primary reason is the poorer recruitment to A8+ since the turn of the century that is now indicated (given the further data now available) compared to 2019.



Department of Mathematics and Applied Mathematics, University of Cape Town