SCRS_2020_079_fin.pdf (398.13 kB)

What do current results using the package indicate regarding which uncertainty axes “matter” regarding CMP performance, and what are the next steps needed in the ABFT MSE process

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posted on 01.04.2021, 12:44 by Doug Butterworth, Rebecca A Rademeyer
An approach is put forward, using the results from the CMPs applied to the 96 Operating Models (OMs) of the interim grid in Butterworth and Rademeyer (SCRS/2020/075), to assess the extent to which CMP performance is impacted (“matters”) for the various uncertainty axes currently included in this grid. For each uncertainty axis, the range of median Br30 values for the factors along that axis across the OMs for a full cross of the factors across all the other uncertainty axes is considered. Results indicate that some uncertainty axes do “matter” much less than others, rendering associated inferences possible before any decision on desired CMP tuning with respect to final abundance targets need be reached. However, for reliable results, developers first need to refine their CMPs further to improve the robustness of their performances so as to be closer to that which might be possible for their final forms. A sequential set of steps for taking the MSE process further is suggested, which distinguishes the roles of assessing whether OMs “matter” and according them plausibility weightings of some form.

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Department of Mathematics and Applied Mathematics, University of Cape Town

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