Conditioning results for the 2024 Hake Reference Set

Results are presented for the conditioning of the 2024 hake Reference Set (RS) of nine Operating Models (OMs). On the whole, the updated RS is reasonably consistent with the last RS from 2022, barring two runs where a more depleted M. capensis stock is estimated – the remaining OMs estimate both stocks to be above BMSY. There seems to be some multi-modality in the negative log-likelihood surface, which is not uncommon for the hake models, indicating that the data are not able to distinguish between two or more possible outcomes. In particular, the M. capensis depletion levels seem not to be very well determined. An exercise will be undertaken whereby runs for which the M. capensis is estimated to be more depleted are projected forward under the rules of OMP-2022 to ascertain whether the OMP secures M. capensis recovery for such cases.